Fitch reaffirms Côte d'Ivoire's 'BB-' rating during the pre-election period
On January 31, 2025, Fitch Ratings confirmed the sovereign rating of Côte d'Ivoire at 'BB-', with a stable outlook, despite political uncertainties related to the presidential election scheduled for October 2025. This decision reflects the agency's confidence in the strength of the Ivorian economy, its rigorous budget management, and its well-established macroeconomic policies. Fitch emphasizes that Côte d'Ivoire benefits from robust economic growth, low inflation, and a close partnership with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The agency anticipates that, despite the upcoming electoral challenges, the country will maintain its stability, supported by ongoing economic reforms and prudent budget management. In 2024, Côte d'Ivoire's economic growth is estimated at 6.1%, with projections reaching 6.5% in the medium term, surpassing the median of 'BB' rated countries, which is set at 3.8%. This performance is attributed to ambitious public investments, increased diversification in the gold and oil sectors, as well as stable macroeconomic policies. On the budgetary front, the deficit is estimated at 4% of GDP in 2024, in line with national targets, thanks to increased revenue mobilization. The tax-to-GDP ratio is expected to improve by 0.5 percentage points per year until 2028, supported by tax reforms such as streamlining exemptions and better administration. Despite these strengths, challenges remain, including a per capita income lower than that of its 'BB' peers, governance issues, and fragile political stability. Nevertheless, the rigorous management of public finances allows for the prospect of a reduction in public debt, stabilized at 58% of GDP in 2024, with a projection of 52.7% by 2026. The strengthening of the international reserves of the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO), which increased from USD 15.9 billion at the end of 2023 to USD 21.4 billion in December 2024, also constitutes a positive signal, enhancing the economic resilience of Côte d'Ivoire in a sensitive electoral context. In March 2024, Moody's upgraded Côte d'Ivoire's rating to 'Ba2', placing the country second among credits in sub-Saharan Africa, alongside South Africa. This improvement reflects recognition of the country's ongoing efforts in economic reforms and macroeconomic stability. As the presidential election in October 2025 approaches, political and social stability remains a crucial issue. Fitch anticipates that any potential confrontation will be limited and will not compromise either economic growth or budget consolidation efforts. The agency believes that economic reforms should continue without major interruptions and that policy continuity will be ensured.
Source: Agence Ecofin, MEPD Web Portal Editorial Team
