Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDMS)

Ivory Coast has a debt management framework that complies with international standards. This framework includes the adoption of a Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDMS). This strategy is attached to the finance law at the beginning of the year and is implemented by the Government.

The MTDMS takes into account the evolution of the macroeconomic and budgetary framework, which reflects the National Development Plans (PND) and the Government's priority actions.

The current MTDMS for 2024-2028 aims to:

  • meet the financing needs of the State and its payment obligations at the lowest possible costs;

  • ensure that the risks related to the public debt portfolio remain within acceptable limits;

  • maintain debt sustainability indicators below defined thresholds; and

  • contribute to the development of the domestic financial market.

In the coming years, the State should prioritize financing that helps reduce the risks of refinancing domestic debt, interest rates, and exchange rates.

More specifically, financing needs should be covered on average according to a 42%-58% ratio of external and domestic financing instruments over the period 2024-2028.

External resources during this period would consist of:

  • concessional loans (15%);

  • semi-concessional loans (56%);

  • commercial loans (15%); and

  • financing from international markets (14%).

This external debt should be dominated by financing denominated in euros and at fixed rates.

Domestic resources would be mobilized through short, medium, and long-term loans, respectively accounting for 10%, 35%, and 55% over the same period.

 

Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA)

The risk of over-indebtedness for Ivory Coast remains moderate during the period 2024-2043, both for external debt and total public debt, with a breach of threshold for the ratios of "external debt service to budgetary revenues excluding grants" and "external debt service to exports."

Regarding the analysis of external debt, the baseline scenario reveals that solvency indicators (the ratio of the Present Value (PV) of external debt to GDP, the ratio of the PV of external debt to exports, and the ratio of the PV of total public debt to GDP) remain below their respective thresholds during the period 2024-2034. However, the ratios of "external debt service to exports" and "external debt service to budgetary revenues excluding grants" exceed their respective thresholds for the year 2024.

Concerning the analysis of total public debt, the PV of public debt/GDP ratio remains below its reference point from 2024 to 2034, with an average gap of 7.0% compared to its threshold of 55%. However, the total public debt portfolio remains vulnerable to a shock in the economic growth rate.